When arguing for the resurrection, Christian leaders often focus on the probabilities of the following:
- P( Those who allegedly died for testifying to the resurrection were not lying )
- P( The body of Jesus was not stolen )
- P( The body of Jesus was not misplaced )
- P( The account of the resurrection was not fabricated years after the life of Jesus )
However, the most essential probability they ignore is the probability of their own explanation.
- P( A dead person resurrected )
When asked about they probability of a human rising from the dead they typically have no approximate probability to offer.
In spite of ignoring the probability of a dead person resurrecting, a probability essential to a calculation of the final probability for the resurrection, they will then claim that the resurrection is the most likely explanation for the minimal facts.
It is mathematically absurd to claim X is more likely than Y when missing one of the relevant probabilities.
The visual on below highlights this blunder of ignoring critical probabilities with a hypothetical featuring Abraham Lincoln.